6/8/2023 0 Comments Bubble explode critical mass![]() ![]() The audience also considered the good, not-so-good, and ugly scenarios for India.ġ)In the brightest, India’s growth rate accelerated as reforms gained critical mass and the country reaped the democratic dividend. “Citibank made a fortune out of the Indonesian crisis,” noted one participant. Private wealth management companies could also boom as Chinese sought to move more money offshore. Private education and healthcare sectors could flourish. For example, sales of water filters might rise as effluent controls failed. ![]() But business opportunities could emerge for companies seeking to provide private sector solutions to public sector problems. It would become increasingly difficult to enforce the rule of law. Because of a stalling reform drive, GDP growth rates would fall increasing the risks of operating in China. “It could change from Asia exporting through China to China exporting through Asia,” said one executive.ģ)The gloomiest scenario was one of unfulfilled promise. It could also help stimulate regional trade. But domestic consumption might increase strongly as the government sought to offset falling external demand. Such an outcome could have serious implications for US and European multi-national companies and encourage them to shift more manufacturing to India. Its growth rates would slow and it would be forced to focus more on Asian markets. They would also face increasingly aggressive competition from local companies.Ģ)The second scenario for China suggested it would be hit by rising protectionism in the US and Europe. The big problem for foreign multi-nationals would be recruiting and retaining talented local staff. There would also be huge demand for non-fossil energy, be it nuclear, solar, or wind power. Consumer demand would also shift from buying products to “experiences”, such as education, entertainment, and tourism. The collective wisdom of the break-out group suggested that telecoms, transport, and communications sectors could prove among the most attractive as the government sustained its drive to support poorer regions. ![]()
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